AI 2027: A Vision for the Future

How can we expect Artificial Intelligence to develop and change the world in the years to come? Addressing this question, the “AI 2027” scenario was published in April 2025 by the AI Futures Project, led by researchers Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, and Romeo Dean. These researchers proposed a detailed speculative timeline (from the present until late 2027) describing the potential future of the world given AI advancement. The scenario considers how advances in AI might accelerate rapidly, potentially culminating in Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) by late 2027.

Specifics of the AI 2027 Scenario

In the scenario, superhuman coders (SCs) emerge in early 2027: AI systems with coding and research abilities beyond any human. These coders then automate further AI development, triggering an “intelligence explosion” that grows scarily fast at an exponential rate.

Another key idea is that compute power becomes the main driver of AI progress. As AI systems grow more capable, training and running them requires enormous computing resources: advanced chips, large data centers, electricity, and capital. Over time, progress depends less on individual breakthroughs or creativity and more on who can scale these resources the fastest. Thus, AI development turns into a high-stakes race built on industrial capacity.

Within this race, the scenario focuses heavily on competition between the United States and China, the two leading nations in AI development. While both invest heavily in AI, the U.S. ultimately gains the upper hand due to greater access to advanced chips and more compute power. This advantage allows the U.S. to train more powerful systems sooner, giving it a decisive lead in the AI race.

At the end, the authors present two alternative endings. In the “race” ending (the bad outcome), AI development continues at breakneck speed, raising grave risks for humanity. In the “slowdown” ending (the better, but not perfect, outcome), more cautious governance allows for safer development of powerful AI.

Perhaps expectedly, the proposed scenario also gave rise to uncertainty and doubt. Many experts and thinkers remain skeptical of just how fast and far AI will progress. However, the authors of AI 2027 are themselves clear: this is just one possible future, not a guaranteed outcome. The researchers’ point is not that these outcomes will definitely happen, but that they are plausible scenarios based on current trends and are worth taking seriously. Additionally, even if the “superintelligence” theory doesn’t materialize, more gradual AI adoption could still disrupt many jobs.

What Could This Mean for Jobs & the Economy

If something similar to the “AI 2027” scenario plays out, the superhuman coders and other advanced AI systems would be able not only to write software and run AI research, but to automate many tasks that today require human labor. Of course, that could dramatically accelerate productivity and reshape large sectors of the economy.

Jobs that depend heavily on routine, repetitive, or codable tasks (like software work or data processing) will be especially impacted. As soon as AI becomes capable of doing those tasks faster and cheaper than humans, those jobs might change fundamentally, shrink, or disappear.

However, as with other assessments of AI impact (not just AI 2027), it’s likely not the black-and-white situation of “jobs lost, people sad.” Many analysts believe AI will change skill demands rather than just eliminate jobs: uniquely human skills like creativity, judgment, complex problem-solving, oversight, and coordination may become more important. For example, a Cornell study found that as AI becomes more widespread, demand for skills like digital literacy, teamwork, and adaptability grows while demand for purely routine or substitutable tasks declines.

So for many workers, the future might look less like “lost jobs” and more like “shifted jobs”: doing different things, using new tools, or working in hybrid human-AI teams.

A Few Suggestions for Individuals, Businesses, & Policymakers

• Workers should focus on skills hard to automate. If you rely on routine tasks or “codable” work, it may make sense to build or strengthen skills around collaboration, creativity, human judgment, leadership, digital literacy, or adaptability.

• Businesses should plan for hybrid work. Rather than simply replacing humans, which may prove to be unethical and unhelpful, companies could combine human strengths with AI by using AI for repetitive tasks and using humans for creative tasks.

• Policymakers should direct their focus on AI. The outcome of society depends heavily on how AI is developed and governed, so there’s value in having frameworks for safety, regulation, retraining, and fair transition. The “slowdown” ending in AI 2027 shows that cautious, cooperative development will yield a more manageable future.
  

So, is AI 2027 Realistic or Not?

A bit of both.

On one hand, the authors are serious. They use data, modeling trends, expert feedback, and even “tabletop simulations” to construct a scenario that, although speculative, is clearly plausible. On the other hand, many experts remain skeptical, arguing that the pace of advancement may be unrealistic or that the scenario underestimates governance delays, technical bottlenecks, and social resistance.

Nevertheless, while AI 2027 is not a guaranteed outcome, it is a serious warning, a wake-up call, and a useful tool to guide how we might want to prepare for the future of work.

Sources

1. https://ai-2027.com

2. https://blog.ai-futures.org/p/why-america-wins

3. https://arxiv.org/abs/2412.19754

4. https://thedecisionlab.com/reference-guide/computer-science/ai-and-the-future-of-work

5. https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-ai-2027-scenario-how-realistic